Editor’s note: This is the Friday, Jan. 29 edition of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from reporter J.P. Hoornstra. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
As I mentioned in today’s story about Joc Pederson agreeing to terms on a one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs, four players have taken an at-bat in every Dodgers postseason since 2015: Pederson, Kiké Hernandez, Justin Turner and Corey Seager. In the span of a week, Pederson and Hernandez have signed elsewhere, while Turner’s fate remains conspicuously undetermined.
I want to use this newsletter to focus on the departures of Hernandez and Pederson. In one sense, this was inevitable. The Dodgers already had a right-handed-hitting utility player in Chris Taylor, and have been grooming a left-handed counterpart in Zach McKinstry. Those players can at least make up for the loss of Hernandez’s production at the plate, and help offset his versatility in the field.
As for Pederson, an outfield of Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock was going to be among the best in baseball without him. Another left-handed-hitting outfielder, Zach Reks, was added to the 40-man roster in November. Hernandez and Pederson will each make $7 million this season. Take sentiment out of the equation, and you quickly understand why the Dodgers felt they could spend those $14 million better elsewhere.
Taking sentiment out of the equation isn’t always easy, but remember it helped the Dodgers win a World Series in the first place. By allowing pitcher Zack Greinke to leave as a free agent in 2015, the Dodgers were able to draft their starting catcher, Will Smith. By trading a homegrown prospect, Dee Gordon, they were able to acquire two players who were on the field for the final out of the 2020 World Series: Hernandez and catcher Austin Barnes. Trading pitcher Kenta Maeda resulted in hard-throwing reliever Brusdar Graterol. Other homegrown prospects allowed the Dodgers to acquire Betts, Taylor, reliever Dylan Floro, and reliever Adam Kolarek. You can’t keep the band together forever.
Still, it was fun to see Hernandez and Pederson evolve into the roles that finally resulted in a championship for this particular band of Dodgers. Hernandez averaged 1.6 WAR per season from 2015-20. He cost the Dodgers $12 million over that time, an exceptional return on investment, and the publicly available metrics don’t capture all of Hernandez’s value: By being able to play virtually any position in the field, he gave the Dodgers a better-than-replacement-level player if an injury struck any position player on their roster. In six seasons, Hernandez only went on the injured list three times himself.
Off the field, Hernandez was renowned for keeping things light. Some were quick to criticize his antics as irreverent, especially early in his tenure. As Hernandez aged, it was clear those antics were a natural extension of his personality. That’s why it’s tough to extricate sentiment from any evaluation of Hernandez’s time in Los Angeles. He’s one of the most exuberant and expressive players in the game, take it or leave it. Some fans loved it. Others couldn’t get over his .222/.286/.386 career slash line against right-handed pitchers.
Give the Dodgers this: they got the most out of Hernandez’s bat. He thumped the game-tying home run late in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against the Braves in October. He hit three home runs in a single NLCS game against the Cubs in 2017. He regularly made four-time All-Star Madison Bumgarner look foolish, batting .500 against him and .232 against every other pitcher he’s faced. Hernandez took to social media yesterday to express a farewell message to fans.
Pederson was a homegrown Dodger, an 11th-round draft pick in 2010. After plenty of hype and a 30-30 season at Triple-A in 2014, it looked like Pederson would be the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder and/or leadoff hitter for years to come. That didn’t happen. His bat never came around against left-handed pitching, or at best the Dodgers did not give him a chance to develop that skill by turning him into a platoon player. Although he might be the streakiest hitter I’ve ever covered – the difference between the 2020 regular season and postseason is the latest example – Pederson usually finished the season with a strong batting line. Only 20 players have batted at least 1,000 times since the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles with a higher OPS than Pederson’s .820.
The Cubs and Red Sox are two of the most successful franchises of the last decade. Now, they find themselves in a similarly precarious situation. They aren’t expected to contend for a World Series in 2021, if they are able to reach the playoffs at all. The Red Sox finished fifth in the five-team AL East last season, and have done little to narrow the gap between themselves and the Rays, Yankees or Blue Jays. The Cubs traded pitcher Yu Darvish to the Padres, non-tendered outfielder Kyle Schwarber (before Schwarber signed with the Nationals), and lost pitchers Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Tyler Chatwood to free agency. Pederson is the only notable free agent they’ve signed.
On the surface, this doesn’t look like a case of two players itching to get back to the World Series. It looks as if Hernandez and Pederson want a chance to play for teams that will have more at-bats to offer than the Dodgers. They’ve earned that. At some point this year, they’ll get their World Series rings from the Dodgers, and they’ve earned those too.
— J.P.
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