SERIES SCHEDULE
Game 1: Nationals at Dodgers, Thursday, 5:37 p.m., TBS
Game 2: Nationals at Dodgers, Friday, 6:37 p.m., TBS
Game 3: Dodgers at Nationals, Sunday, 4:45 p.m., TBS
x-Game 4: Dodgers at Nationals, Monday, TBA, TBS
x-Game 5: Nationals at Dodgers, Wednesday (Oct. 9), TBA, TBS
x- if necessary
Season series: Dodgers won 4-3
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Dodgers (NL rank) … category …Nationals (NL rank)
886 (1st) … Runs scored … 873 (2nd)
.338 (2nd) … OBP … .342 (1st)
.472 (1st) … Slugging Pct. … .454 (3rd)
.810 (1st) … OPS … .796 (2nd)
.257 (T-5th) … Batting Avg. … .265 (T-2nd)
279 (1st) … HRs … 231 (6th)
57 (11th) … SBs … 116 (2nd)
TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)
Dodgers (NL rank) … category … Nationals (NL rank)
3.37 (1st) … Team ERA … 4.27 (8th)
3.11 (1st) … Starters ERA … 3.53 (2nd)
3.78 (1st) … Bullpen ERA … 5.66 (15th)
1.10 (1st) … WHIP … 1.29 (4th)
9.46 (2nd) … Ks per 9 inns … 9.45 (3rd)
.661 (1st) … Opponent OPS … .726 (4th)
.223 (1st) … Opponent Avg. … .244 (4th)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
Nationals: SS Trea Turner (.298, 19 HRs, 57 RBIs, 35 SBs, 96 runs scored, .850 OPS), RF Adam Eaton (.279, 15 HRs, 49 RBIs, 103 runs scored, .792 OPS), 3B Anthony Rendon (.319, 34 HRs, 126 RBIs, 44 2Bs, 117 runs, 1.010 OPS), LF Juan Soto (.282, 34 HRs, 110 RBIs, 110 runs scored, .949 OPS), 1B Howie Kendrick (.344, 17 HRs, 62 RBIs, .966 OPS), 2B Asdrúbal Cabrera (.260, 18 HRs, 91 RBIs, .783 OPS combined with Rangers and Nationals), CF Victor Robles (.255, 17 HRs, 65 RBIs, 28 SBs, .745), C Kurt Suzuki (.264, 17 HRs, 63 RBIs, .809)
Dodgers: RF Joc Pederson (.249, 36 HRs, 74 RBIs, .876 OPS), 1B Max Muncy (.251, 35 HRs, 98 RBIs, .889 OPS, 90 walks), 3B Justin Turner (.290, 27 HRs, 67 RBIs, .881 OPS), CF Cody Bellinger (.305, 47 HRs, 115 RBIs, 121 runs scored, .629 slugging percentage, 95 walks, 1.035 OPS)., LF A.J. Pollock (.266, 15 HRs, 47 RBIs, .795 OPS), SS Corey Seager (.272, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs, .817), C Will Smith (.253, 15 HRs, 42 RBIs, .907 OPS, 54 games), 2B Gavin Lux (.240, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, .705 OPS, 23 games)
These are the two most productive lineups in the National League. They rank 1-2 in runs scored (Dodgers’ favor), on-base percentage (Nationals’ favor), slugging percentage (Dodgers) and OPS (Dodgers). The Dodgers not only improved on last year’s franchise record for home runs, they obliterated the National League record as well (279-248). Three players (Bellinger, Muncy and Pederson) hit at least 35 home runs. Six had an OPS over .800. But they have taken powerful offenses into the postseason before only to have their bats go soft in October. This year is different, they believe, because the collective offensive approach is much better, more suited to the pressure of postseason play. Evidence? They hit .286 with runners in scoring position, a 33-point improvement over last season. They swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone than any NL team and took more walks than all but two NL teams. The Nationals lost Bryce Harper to free agency over the winter – and posted a higher team batting average, on-base percentage and OPS and hit more home runs without him. Led by right-handed hitters Rendon, Turner and Kendrick, the Nats were particularly troublesome for left-handed pitchers – and the Dodgers will start three of them. EDGE: Dodgers
STARTING PITCHERS
Nationals: LH Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 innings), RH Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA,1.03 WHIP, 12.7 Ks per 9 innings), RH Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 Ks per 9 innings), RH Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.3 Ks per 9 innings).
Dodgers: RH Walker Buehler (14-4, 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 innings), LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.0 Ks per 9 innings), LH Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 Ks per 9 innings), LH Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11 Ks per 9 innings)
This is the reason the Nationals might present the most difficult matchup for the Dodgers in the NL playoffs. Three of their starters (Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin) ranked in the NL’s top 10 in ERA, strikeouts and opponents’ batting average. Corbin will be making his first postseason start in Game 1. The Dodgers are familiar with him from his time with the Diamondbacks. Strasburg did not face the Dodgers in their 2016 NLDS matchup and has made just two starts against them in his career (1-1, 2.08 ERA, six hits in 13 innings). But it was the Dodgers’ rotation that had the lowest ERA in baseball (3.11). Kershaw, Buehler and Ryu are all better at home than on the road, making home-field advantage even more valuable to them. EDGE: Even
BULLPEN
Nationals: LH Sean Doolittle (6-5, 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 29 saves, 6 blown saves), RH Daniel Hudson (9-3, 2.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8 saves combined with Blue Jays and Nationals), RH Fernando Rodney (0-5, 5.66 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 9.3 Ks per 9 innings combined with A’s and Nationals), RH Hunter Strickland (2-1, 5.55 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.7 Ks per 9 innings combined with Mariners and Nationals); RH Tanner Rainey (2-3, 3.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 13.8 Ks per 9 innings), RH Wander Suero (6-9, 4.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.2 Ks per 9 innings), LH Matt Grace (1-2, 6.36 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.8 Ks per 9 innings), LH Tony Sipp (1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.7 Ks per 9 innings).
Dodgers: RH Kenley Jansen (5-3, 3.71 ERA, 33 saves, 8 blown saves, 1.06 WHIP, 11.4 Ks per 9 innings, RH Joe Kelly (5-4, 4.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.1 Ks per 9 innings), RH Pedro Baez (7-2, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.9 Ks per 9 innings), RH Kenta Maeda (10-8, 4.04 ERA, 3 saves, 37 games, 26 starts, 1.07 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per nine innings), LH Julio Urias (4-3, 2.49 ERA, 4 saves, 37 games, 8 starts, 1.08 WHIP, 9.6 Ks per 9 innings), LH Adam Kolarek (6-3, 3.27 ERA, 80 games combined with Rays and Dodgers, 1.16 WHIP, 7.4 Ks per 9 innings), RH Dustin May (2-3, 3.63 ERA, 14 games, 4 starts, 1.10 WHIP, 8.3 Ks per 9 innings), RH Ross Stripling (4-4, 3.47 ERA, 32 games, 15 starts, 1.15 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 innings)
This is the Achilles heel for both teams – but much more so for the Nationals. While the Dodgers should worry about the inconsistency of Jansen (a career-high eight blown saves), the health of Kelly (one appearance in the past two weeks) and the wisdom of relying on so many displaced starting pitchers (Maeda, Urias, Stripling and May), the Dodgers’ bullpen ERA during the season (3.78) was actually the lowest in the National League. The Nationals’ bullpen ERA was an atrocious 5.66 – the highest in the majors. Both tried to address the issue at the trade deadline in July. The Dodgers found a lefty specialist in Kolarek. The Nationals added Rodney, Strickland and Hudson. Hudson (a one-time Dodger) has given them solid results – a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 14 appearances since being acquired from the Blue Jays. It was Hudson who closed out the Nationals’ wild-card win over the Brewers on Tuesday. EDGE: Dodgers
BENCH
Nationals: C Yan Gomes (.223, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs, .704 OPS), 1B Matt Adams (.226, 20 HRs, 56 RBIs, .741 OPS), 2B Brian Dozier (.238, 20 HRs, 50 RBIs, .771 OPS), OF Gerardo Parra (.234, 9 HRs, 48 RBIs, .684 OPS combined with Giants and Nationals), IF Ryan Zimmerman (.257, 6 HRs, 27 RBIs, .736 OPS)
Dodgers: C Russell Martin (.220, 6 HRs, 20 RBIs, .667 OPS, 83 games), OF Chris Taylor (.262, 12 HRs, 52 RBIs, .794 OPS), 1B David Freese (.315, 11 HRs, 29 RBIs, 1.002 OPS), IF-OF Kiké Hernandez (.237, 17 HRs, 64 RBIs, .715 OPS), OF Matt Beaty (.265, 9 HRs, 46 RBIs, .775 OPS)
The full ‘line changes’ of last postseason won’t be necessary this fall. The Dodgers are no longer as vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Pederson and Lux will still be swapped out for Freese and Taylor (or Hernandez). Freese’s productivity in his bench role has been a big plus for the Dodgers. The Nationals will call on veterans Adams, Dozier and Zimmerman off the bench. Adams has two pinch-hit home runs this year – and the Dodgers are familiar with the damage he can do with one October swing. EDGE: Dodgers
MANAGER
Fifty games into his second season as Nationals manager, Dave Martinez was on the verge of meeting the same fate as three of his predecessors in the previous five seasons (Dusty Baker, Matt Williams, Davey Johnson). But the Nationals turned it around, raced back into wild-card contention and beat the Brewers on Tuesday. How much of that Martinez deserves credit for can be debated. But he got them here. Roberts, meanwhile, has taken his team to the World Series the past two falls and the NLCS the year before that after winning more than 100 games in two of the past three postseasons. Whether it’s winning an elimination game on the road, managing through an 18-inning World Series game or having his pitching choices questioned on Twitter by the President, there is little that Roberts hasn’t already navigated in the postseason. EDGE: Dodgers
SERIES PREDICTION
On May 23, the Nationals fell to 19-31. The loss of Harper to free agency in the offseason seemed to signal the end of their run as contenders – disappointing as it was. Since then, however, the Nationals were just as good as the Dodgers. Both went 74-38 after that date and the Nationals actually outscored the Dodgers (654-629) over two-thirds of the season. If the momentum of fighting your way into a playoff spot means anything, the Nationals have that going for them along with the potential dominance of their starting trio (Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin). But the Dodgers have shown themselves to be the class of the National League this year, have their own trio of dominant starters and the hardened shell that comes from past Octobers. DODGERS IN FOUR